{ From user Lonnie, Model Plane_catching_with_ at Thu, Jan 03, 2008 9:48 AM~~
}
Softwareversion 4.0.1
{ System Variables with non-default values: }
Samplesize := 2000
Typechecking := 1
Checking := 1
Showundef := 0
Saveoptions := 2
Savevalues := 0
{!40000|Graph_gridcolor := 52992,52992,52992}
{!40000|Graph_framecolor := 20224,20224,20224}
{!40000|Att_contlinestyle Graph_cdf_valdim: 1}
{!40000|Att_areafill Graph_cdf_valdim: 1}
Model Plane_catching_with_
Title: Plane catching with EVIU
Description: A simple model to assess what time I should leave my home~~
to catch a plane, with uncertain driving time, walking from parking ~~
to gate (including security), and how long I need to be at the gate a~~
head of scheduled departure time. It uses a loss model based on minut~~
es, assuming I value each extra minute snoozing in bed and set the lo~~
ss if I miss the plane to 400 of those minutes.~
~
It illustrates the EVIU (expected value of including uncertainty) i.e~~
. the difference in expected value if I make a decision to minimize e~~
xpected loss instead of decision to minimize time ignoring uncertaint~~
y (assuming each distribution is fixed at its mid value). For more de~~
tails see "The Value of Knowing How Little You Know", Max Henrion, P~~
hD Dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University, 1982.
Author: Max Henrion
Date: Sun, Jun 24, 2007 7:29 PM
Saveauthor: Lonnie
Savedate: Thu, Jan 03, 2008 9:48 AM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Diagstate: 1,5,9,400,496,17
Windstate: 2,414,41,493,428
Fontstyle: Arial, 15
Fileinfo: 0,Model Plane_catching_with_,2,2,0,0,W:\Analytica\ExecDebug\~~
Example Models\Decision Analysis\Plane catching decision with EVIU.AN~~
A
Module Eviu_details
Title: EVIU details
Author: Max Henrion
Date: Tue, Jun 26, 2007 12:26 AM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 80,432,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodeinfo: 1,0,1,1,1,1,0,,0,
Diagstate: 1,413,11,315,299,17
Variable Prob_of_missing_plan
Title: Prob of missing plane
Description: The probability that I will miss the plane.
Definition: Probability(Time_i_leave_home < Time_from_home_to_g1)~
Nodelocation: 216,40,1
Nodesize: 52,28
Windstate: 2,632,421,476,224
Valuestate: 2,113,98,688,493,1,MIDM
Aliases: Formnode Prob_of_missing_pla1
Variable Eviu
Title: EVIU
Units: mins
Description: The expected value of including uncertainty, i.e. the inc~~
rease in expected value from selecting the decision that maximizes ex~~
pected value (including uncertainty) instead of making the "optimal" ~~
decision that maximizes value ignoring uncertainty.
Definition: Cost[Time_i_leave_home = Best_time_to_min_exp] - Cost[Time~~
_i_leave_home = Best_time_ignoring_u]
Nodelocation: 216,104,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,102,90,515,414
Valuestate: 2,883,302,463,459,0,MIDM
Aliases: Formnode Eviu1
Reformval: [Time_i_leave_home,Undefined,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Decision Best_time_ignoring_u
Title: Best time ignoring uncertainty
Units: mins
Description: The best time to leave if we ignore uncertainty -- minimi~~
zing deterministic cost.
Definition: ArgMin(Mid(Cost), Time_i_leave_home)
Nodelocation: 64,104,1
Nodesize: 48,31
Valuestate: 2,104,114,416,303,1,MIDM
Decision Best_time_to_min_exp
Title: Best time to min expected loss
Units: mins
Description: The best time to leave to minimizing expected loss
Definition: ArgMin(Mean(Cost), Time_i_leave_home)
Nodelocation: 64,192,1
Nodesize: 48,40
Index View1
Title: View
Definition: ['Cost ignoring uncertainty','Decision ignoring uncertaint~~
y','Expected cost','Decision minimizing expected cost']
Nodelocation: 216,248,1
Nodesize: 48,24
{!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Cost ignoring uncertainty','Decision ign~~
oring uncertainty','Expected cost','Decision minimizing expected cost~~
']}
Variable Eviu_vs_ev
Title: EVIU vs EV
Units: mins
Description: Compare cost ignoring uncertainty with expected cost as a~~
function fo time I leave home. Also shows, the decision ignoring unc~~
ertainty (minimizing cost ignoring uncertainty) and the decision to m~~
inimize expected cost.
Definition: Table(View1)(Mid(Cost), IF Best_time_ignoring_u > Time_i_l~~
eave_home THEN INF ELSE 0, Mean(Cost), IF Best_time_to_min_exp > Time~~
_i_leave_home THEN INF ELSE 0)
Nodelocation: 216,192,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Valuestate: 2,111,37,688,492,1,MIDM
Aliases: Formnode Eviu_vs_ev1
Reformval: [Time_i_leave_home,View1]
Close Eviu_details
Variable Loss_if_miss_the_pla
Title: Loss if miss the plane
Units: mins
Description: The loss (in minutes equivalent) of missing this plane an~~
d having to take the next one, or just cancelling the trip.
Definition: 400
Nodelocation: 324,224,1
Nodesize: 52,24
Variable Value_per_min_at_ho1
Title: Value per min at home
Units: mins
Description: The value of each extra minute at home -- e.g. snoozing i~~
n bed instead of getting up earlier.
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 196,224,1
Nodesize: 52,24
{!40000|Att_previndexvalue: [0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03999999999999999,0.04999999999999998~~
]}
Objective Cost
Title: Cost
Units: minutes
Description: The total cost (in minutes) including loss of time snoozi~~
ng before leaving home and loss if I miss the plane.
Definition: Value_per_min_at_ho1 * (Time_from_home_to_g1 - Time_i_leav~~
e_home)~
+ IF Time_i_leave_home > Time_from_home_to_g1 ~
THEN Loss_if_miss_the_pla ELSE 0
Nodelocation: 328,144,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,570,430,476,224
Valuestate: 2,134,75,688,496,1,MEAN
Aliases: Formnode Cost1
Graphsetup: {!40000|Att_contlinestyle Graph_pdf_valdim:6}~
{!40000|Att_contlinestyle Graph_primary_valdim:1}~
Distresol:50
Reformval: [Time_i_leave_home,Undefined,2,Undefined,1]
Chance Time_from_home_to_g1
Title: Time from home to gate
Units: mins
Description: Total time it takes from leaving home to plane departing.~~
Definition: Time_to_drive_to_air + Time_from_parking_to + Gate_time_be~~
fore_dep
Nodelocation: 196,144,1
Nodesize: 52,32
Windstate: 2,660,47,476,224
Valuestate: 2,190,106,613,408,1,PDFP
Aliases: Formnode Time_from_home_to_ga
Graphsetup: Distresol:100~
{!40000|Att_areafill Graph_pdf_valdim:1}~
Diststeps:1~
{!40000|Att_contlinestyle Graph_pdf_valdim:6}~
{!40000|Graph_filltransparen:0}
Decision Time_i_leave_home
Title: Time I leave home before plane departure
Units: minutes
Description: The time at which I decide to leave home in minutes befor~~
e scheduled plane departure.
Definition: [30,35,40,55,60,65,70,75,80,85,90,95,100,100.01,105,110,11~~
5,120,125,130,135,140,145,150,155,160]
Nodelocation: 204,64,1
Nodesize: 60,32
Windstate: 2,102,90,539,600
{!40000|Att_previndexvalue: [30,35,40,55,60,65,70,75,80,85,90,95,100,100.01~~
,105,110,115,120,125,130,135,140,145,150,155,160]}
Chance Time_to_drive_to_air
Title: Time to drive to airport
Definition: Lognormal( 60, 1.3 )
Nodelocation: 68,64,1
Nodesize: 52,32
Windstate: 2,640,192,476,224
Chance Time_from_parking_to
Title: Time from parking to gate
Definition: Lognormal(10, 1.3)
Nodelocation: 68,144,1
Nodesize: 52,32
Windstate: 2,275,52,476,224
Chance Gate_time_before_dep
Title: Gate time before departure
Units: min
Definition: Triangular( 20, 30, 40 )
Nodelocation: 68,224,1
Nodesize: 52,32
Formnode Cost1
Title: Cost
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 248,368,1
Nodesize: 108,13
Nodeinfo: 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,72
Original: Cost
Formnode Time_from_home_to_ga
Title: Time from home to gate
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 196,304,1
Nodesize: 160,13
Nodeinfo: 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,72
Original: Time_from_home_to_g1
Formnode Prob_of_missing_pla1
Title: Prob of missing plane
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 220,336,1
Nodesize: 136,13
Nodeinfo: 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,72
Original: Prob_of_missing_plan
Formnode Eviu1
Title: EVIU
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 260,448,1
Nodesize: 96,13
Nodeinfo: 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,72
Original: Eviu
Formnode Eviu_vs_ev1
Title: EVIU vs EV
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 256,416,1
Nodesize: 116,13
Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,0,0,0,72,0,1
Original: Eviu_vs_ev
Text Te1
Description: Results
Nodelocation: 196,372,-1
Nodesize: 180,100
Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,0,
Nodecolor: 65535,65535,65535
Nodefont: Arial Black, 13
Close Plane_catching_with_